How We Calculate Upgrade Advice
Every rating on this site — Good, Neutral, Bad — is derived from a repeatable, data-driven process. This page documents exactly how it works.
The Two Signals
Each device series is evaluated across two independent dimensions. They can and do point in opposite directions (e.g., "Bad time to buy for the cycle, but Good time for deals"). We show both so you can weigh them according to your own priorities.
Cycle Advice
How far into the release cycle are we? Is a new model around the corner?
Offers Advice
Is the current model likely on sale or due for a price drop soon?
Cycle Advice: The Formula
For each device series, we record two data points:
- Release date of the current flagship model in the series
- Cycle length — the number of days between the previous generation launch and the current one (the "last cycle days")
We then calculate two derived values:
Days since release = Today − Release date
Cycle progress (%) = (Days since release ÷ Cycle length) × 100
The cycle progress percentage drives the rating:
| Cycle Progress | Rating | Logic |
|---|---|---|
| 0 – 40% | Good | Fresh release, plenty of support runway ahead |
| 40 – 70% | Neutral | Mid-cycle — no urgency either way |
| 70 – 100% | Bad | Late in cycle — a new model is likely within months |
| Announced | Bad | Next model officially confirmed — waiting is almost always correct |
When a new model is officially announced, the cycle advice immediately becomes Bad, regardless of progress percentage. This override takes priority because at that point you are buying a phone that will be superseded within weeks.
Offers Advice: The Formula
Offers advice is based on the device's bargain windows — specific date ranges where significant discounts are historically available. We maintain these windows manually based on:
- Historical Amazon / carrier sale patterns for each series
- Major sale events: Black Friday (late November), Prime Day (July), back-to-school (August)
- Post-launch clearance windows (typically 2–4 weeks after the next model launches)
If today falls inside a documented bargain window, the rating is Good. Outside those windows, we apply a fallback based on age:
| Condition | Rating |
|---|---|
| Today is inside a known bargain window | Good |
| Next model announced (clearance pricing expected) | Good |
| Model is 6–12+ months old, no specific window | Neutral |
| Model launched recently (< 3 months ago) | Neutral to Bad |
Data Sources
We rely exclusively on public information:
- Official manufacturer press releases and product pages for launch dates
- Historical Amazon and major retailer pricing (tracked manually)
- Published carrier promotional calendars
- Leaked and confirmed pre-announcement news from credible technology publications
We do not have financial relationships with any manufacturer, retailer, or carrier that would influence our ratings.
Limitations
This is timing advice, not a comprehensive product review. We do not evaluate camera quality, software experience, build quality, or carrier compatibility. For those dimensions, we recommend dedicated reviews.
Release cycles can shift. A manufacturer may delay or accelerate a launch. Our cycle estimates are based on historical data and are best understood as probabilities, not guarantees.